Steen Jakobsen said, "our main global macro outlook still maintains that recession is more likely to happen in the near future (within 12 to 18 months) based on the global credit impulse having peaked simultaneously with global inflation."

雅各布森表示：“基于全球信貸和通脹同時觸頂，我們對全球宏觀經濟前景的主要觀點仍是，在未來12-18個月里全球經濟很可能會陷入衰退。”

In a recent note, Jakobsen explained that the biggest"perception-versus-reality gap" in the market currently remains this risk of recession. He added that his company is not predicting a recession, but that its economic model does indicate a significant slowdown as "the large credit impulse from China and Europe in the early part of 2016 has not reversed to negative", which it says should make the market conservative, risk averse push investors into U.S. fixed income.

雅各布森在最近公布的一份研究報告中解釋稱：“目前市場大大低估了衰退發生的風險。我們并不是在預測衰退的到來，而是經濟模型顯示由于中國和歐洲地區的信貸沖動仍沒有得到扭轉，因此未來的經濟增速將急劇下跌。” 這將會導致市場趨向保守，避險情緒將會推動投資者涌入美國固定收益類領域。

 "While the market at large sees less than a 10 percent chance of recession, we at Saxo –together with our friends at South Africa's Nedbank – see more than a 60 percent chance," he added in the note.

在報告中，他補充說，“雖然市場基本上都認為經濟衰退的可能性不足10%，但我們以及南非萊利銀行都認為經濟陷入衰退的可能性超過了60%。

But, according to Jakobsen, Europe's momentum is not followed in other parts of the globe.

但是，雅各布森指出，雖然歐洲經濟有所加強，但全球其他地區的表現就要相對遜色很多。

"One thing is absolutely clear: Asia is not going to contribute anything in 2017 to growth. China is currently at a total standstill," Jakobsen said Monday.

雅各布森指出：有一點是非常明確的：亞洲在2017年將不會對全球經濟增長做出任何貢獻，中國經濟已經處于停滯狀態。