1. 敘事謬誤

現(xiàn)在有種投資策略越發(fā)流行，叫"技術(shù)分析"。其實(shí)是占星術(shù)的分支，即讀圖術(shù)，據(jù)說能"解讀"市場(chǎng)，盡管從走勢(shì)圖上根本看不到任何跟公司有關(guān)的信息。人們光是看曲折的走勢(shì)圖就能編出個(gè)故事，例如市場(chǎng)"動(dòng)能衰竭"，或是"觸底"之類。

很多投資者癡迷于這種毫無作用的技術(shù)。行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)專門研究心理學(xué)在財(cái)務(wù)決策方面的作用，解釋了其中原因。作者納西姆o尼古拉斯o塔勒布稱之為"敘事謬誤"（Narrative Fallacy）。

It's the human tendency, actually the human need, to impose order on random events and to make events we didn't anticipate seem"predictable" after the fact.

從隨機(jī)事件中尋找規(guī)律，事情發(fā)生后將意料之外解讀為"意料之中"是人類本能傾向，也是人類的需要。

The narrative fallacy explains many common financial errors. The news is that it's equally useful for

understanding today's conspiracy politics. It's why, rather than accept that John F. Kennedy was killed by a lone, random gunman, we invented conspiracy theories-to spare us the ontological despair of acknowledging that chaos, not order, rules the universe.

敘事謬誤可以解釋很多金融領(lǐng)域常見的錯(cuò)誤，在理解當(dāng)今世界種種政治陰謀時(shí)同樣也可以用上。這就是為何人們很難相信刺殺約翰·F·肯尼迪是一個(gè)單獨(dú)行動(dòng)的槍手隨機(jī)行為，會(huì)想象出很多陰謀理論，其實(shí)就是不想承認(rèn)混亂才是宇宙的主流，秩序沒那么強(qiáng)大。

Taleb's The Black Swan, published in 2007, became a handbook for market traders-a reminder that random, extreme events like economic crashes overtake the best of plans.They also overtake individuals-those who happened to be in the wrong place during a natural disaster or who worked in a once-healthy industry, such as journalism, that was undercut by a new technology.

塔勒布的《黑天鵝》一書出版于2007年，很快變成交易員案頭必備書。書中認(rèn)為面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)之類隨機(jī)極端事件，再好的計(jì)劃也沒用。個(gè)人也難免受到隨機(jī)事件打擊，尤其是一些大災(zāi)難中恰好出現(xiàn)在錯(cuò)誤地方的人，或是在曾經(jīng)輝煌的行業(yè)工作，例如新聞從業(yè)者因?yàn)樾驴萍汲霈F(xiàn)失去工作。

許多人都很難接受其實(shí)很多領(lǐng)域無法預(yù)測(cè)。回顧歷史也能發(fā)現(xiàn)很多事沒法解釋。總體來說，新聞事件和歷史進(jìn)程并沒有想象中容易解讀。沒人能準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)2011年911事件，也沒有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家能在1970年預(yù)測(cè)財(cái)富分配要開始傾斜，富人變得更富，中產(chǎn)階級(jí)陷入停滯。變量實(shí)在太多了，而且一些重要的變量（例如新生軟件行業(yè)的潛力）當(dāng)時(shí)很難意識(shí)到。

如何避免敘事謬誤？

It's possible to avoid falling for the narrative fallacy. If you're an economist, this means trying not to superimpose, say, a pattern from the last economic cycle on the future. If you're in business, assessing diffuse data to figure out whether to go ahead with an investment, it means resisting the temptation to see a coherent story in that data. Reality is messy. If the investment works, it will have to work in a future that abides a wide range of environments-recessions, new competitors, wars.

不過想避免落入敘事謬誤還是有可能的。如果是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，就不要把上個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的規(guī)律強(qiáng)加在未來走勢(shì)上。如果在商業(yè)界，通過評(píng)估分散的數(shù)據(jù)來確定要不要繼續(xù)投資時(shí)，就要避免從數(shù)據(jù)中找出連貫故事的傾向。現(xiàn)實(shí)很混亂。如果投資策略有效,那么它就得能應(yīng)對(duì)未來各種復(fù)雜的環(huán)境,例如經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，出現(xiàn)新競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者或是戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

投資者尤其要小心過于相信股市里的故事，一旦陷入錯(cuò)誤邏輯，任何漲跌都只會(huì)印證之前的判斷。證券分析可不是尋求真相，說白了就是想盡可能低價(jià)買入。但判斷很可能出錯(cuò)，一些隨機(jī)事件就可能導(dǎo)致判斷錯(cuò)誤。

2. 近因效應(yīng)

想象一下：在NBA總決賽上，克里夫蘭騎士隊(duì)的勒布朗o詹姆斯剛剛進(jìn)了一個(gè)跳投。然后他又進(jìn)了一個(gè)。又一個(gè)。 三投三中，他手感真棒，接下來這球也跑不了，對(duì)吧？

大多數(shù)人都會(huì)毫不猶豫地回答："對(duì)"。但人們的判斷其實(shí)和勒布朗的技術(shù)沒什么關(guān)系，更多來自大腦的猜測(cè)。看似一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的預(yù)期，其實(shí)是長(zhǎng)期進(jìn)化的結(jié)果。不過這種預(yù)感最大的問題就是準(zhǔn)確度不高。從統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)看，勒布朗投進(jìn)的可能性并不比打到籃筐彈出去的可能性大多少，跟之前是否連續(xù)進(jìn)球沒什么關(guān)系。

This leaping-to-conclusions phenomenon is called"recency bias," and it's deep in our emotional wiring. "It's an interesting effect," says Dan Ariely, a professor of behavioral economics at Duke University and the author of books including Predictably Irrational (and the originator of the hoops analogy). "We look atthe most recent evidence, take it too seriously, and expect that things will continue in that way."

這種不假思索就得出結(jié)論的現(xiàn)象叫做"近因效應(yīng)"，深藏在我們的情感脈絡(luò)中。杜克大學(xué)行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授、《可預(yù)測(cè)的非理性》（Predictably Irrational）等書作者（也是最早提出上述投籃類比的人）丹·艾瑞里說："這種效應(yīng)很有趣。人們總是看最新的證據(jù)，過于當(dāng)真，而且預(yù)計(jì)后面會(huì)發(fā)生同樣的事。"

近因效應(yīng)對(duì)投資者來說很特別危險(xiǎn)，一個(gè)不留神就會(huì)變成為人們大腦中錯(cuò)估投資方向的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住?

市場(chǎng)專業(yè)人士也難免受這種思維方式影響。2008年初，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)乍現(xiàn)疲軟之勢(shì)。但在連續(xù)五年實(shí)現(xiàn)正回報(bào)以后，股票分析師的信心也升至歷史高點(diǎn)。研究機(jī)構(gòu)Bespoke Investment Group最近的研究顯示，當(dāng)時(shí)華爾街一致認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)還能上漲11.1%。大家應(yīng)該想到了，分析師的預(yù)測(cè)主要依據(jù)也是近期行情。我們也都知道接下來發(fā)生了什 么--經(jīng)濟(jì)斷崖式下跌，當(dāng)年標(biāo)普500指數(shù)跌去了38.5%。

Recency bias also helps explain retail investor behavior during times of greed or panic. Assets often flow into stocks near market tops and exit at the bottom-exactly the opposite of what investors should be doing, says David Santschi, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research.

近因效應(yīng)還有助于解釋貪婪或恐慌行情中散戶的行為。投資研究公司TrimTabsInvestment Research首席執(zhí)行官大衛(wèi)o桑茨奇指出，資產(chǎn)流入經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)在股市就要見頂時(shí)，流出則經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)底部，正好跟投資者應(yīng)該采取的操作相反。

如何克服近因效應(yīng)？

包括"近因效應(yīng)"在內(nèi)，根深蒂固的思維習(xí)慣可能影響投資者的決策，導(dǎo)致投資蒙受損失。以下三種方法可以盡量克服。

Watch out for high prices

價(jià)格高時(shí)要當(dāng)心

Unusually high price/earnings valuations are often a sign that the party for stocks has gone on a little too long. With stocks trading well above their averages, now may be a good time to sell big winners and put the profits aside.

如果市盈率高得離譜，經(jīng)常意味著股票上漲時(shí)間有些過長(zhǎng)。目前股票價(jià)格已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)高于平均水平，或許是個(gè)賣出大漲股落袋為安的好機(jī)會(huì)。

Play it safe for retirement

為了退休安全操作

The years immediately before and after retirement are when losses can hurt an investor's long-term plans the most. Savers in that life stage should consider putting more money in cash and bonds-no matter how bullish they feel.

退休前后幾年是投資損失對(duì)長(zhǎng)期計(jì)劃影響最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)候。處在這個(gè)階段的人應(yīng)該考慮把資金更多地配置在現(xiàn)金和債券上，不管感覺市場(chǎng)有多牛。

Rely on an autopilot

依靠"自動(dòng)駕駛"

When emotions run high, it helps to have tools that discourage buying or selling on impulse. Target-date funds, "robo-advisers," and annuities can help investors avoid taking excessive risks in good times or panic selling in bad.

在興奮狀態(tài)下，阻止沖動(dòng)型買賣的工具會(huì)很有用。目標(biāo)日期基金、"智能投顧"以及年金都可以幫助投資者避免在牛市中冒太多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，或者在熊市中恐慌拋售。